Former Indian ambassador KP Fabian warned that prolonged hostilities between the United States and Iran are disrupting global trade, driving up fuel costs and complicating President Donald Trump’s planned trip to China.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Fabian said Trump faces growing pressure to defuse the Iran crisis before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping. “I doubt whether Trump will have a useful meeting with Xi Jinping if he has not settled the Iranian question,” Fabian said, urging a ceasefire, the release of frozen funds and a return to the previous status quo in the Strait.
Washington insists a ceasefire remains in place and says recent strikes on Iranian oil tankers and civilian areas were in response to “unprovoked” missile, drone and small-boat attacks on American warships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Fabian rejected the idea that fighting had stopped: “There is no ceasefire… Ceasefire means ceasefiring. During that period, the American Navy was shooting at Iranian ships and the Iranian IRGC was shooting at ships.”
Fabian described US blockade measures as “an act of war,” calling it “ridiculous” to deny Iran access to the Strait while allowing others to use it. He also suggested that public statements from the White House about possible deals with Tehran are often intended to steady financial markets rather than reflect concrete progress: “Such statements are made… to calm the markets. That is the primary motivation.”
He said Trump appears to have recognised the limits of military escalation after suspending what Fabian called the “Freedom Project” days after it began. Fabian said the operation sharply slowed shipping through the Strait, intensifying economic fallout.
Rising fuel prices, disrupted air travel and eroding domestic political support are pressing reasons, he added, for Washington to seek de-escalation. “Trump is in trouble,” Fabian said, noting higher pump prices and widespread flight disruption in Europe — he cited about 13,000 cancellations affecting some 2 million passengers. Fabian also warned that prolonged conflict is weakening support among Trump’s MAGA base.
On the international stage, Fabian argued that only China and Russia are positioned to negotiate with the United States on equal footing, while many other countries have remained largely silent. He pointed to recent comments by China and continued contacts between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Trump.
Reports have suggested Iran and the US may be close to an interim agreement. In a separate interview, Trump called recent exchanges a “love tap” and urged Tehran to finalise a deal quickly. Iran’s foreign ministry countered with stern rhetoric, with spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei likening Iran to “an angry lion”: “If you see the lion’s fangs protruding, do not imagine that the lion is smiling.” Hours later, the United Arab Emirates reported it had responded to missile and drone attacks against its territory.
(Edited by: Prashant)
First Published: May 8, 2026 7:47 PM IST