The United States has intensified economic measures and selective strikes against Iran while the confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz continues. Washington faces a delicate trade-off: cutting Iran’s oil revenue could weaken Tehran, but constricting Gulf flows too much risks lifting global crude and gasoline prices.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply as many shipowners avoid the risk of attacks. Before the conflict, roughly 130 vessels crossed the waterway each day; since hostilities escalated, that number has dropped to a small fraction of pre-war traffic. Crude tanker movements show a similar decline. Kpler data cited by CNN indicate only two to three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have transited the strait daily since July 7, versus about eight per day before the crisis.
Despite the disruption, oil is still leaving the Persian Gulf via alternate means. Some tankers are making “dark” transits by turning off their Automatic Identification Systems to hide movements, while ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait are being used to obscure cargo origins and destinations. Kpler reported that 72 of 84 crude tankers it tracked crossing Hormuz since July 7 sailed dark and likely used a route through Omani waters, though the firm noted it could not confirm every case with certainty.
Those workarounds are keeping barrels flowing and providing relief to the market. Kpler’s analysis suggests Iran currently has about 80 million barrels “on the water,” mostly committed to China — a stockpile that could generate roughly $1.5 billion per month at prevailing prices. At a discharge rate near 650,000 barrels per day, that buffer could last about four months, giving Tehran a temporary cushion against tighter isolation.
Analysts warn that continued oil flows reduce immediate pressure on both sides. If Iran keeps earning enough to sustain the regime and global supply remains broadly available, there is less urgency for a rapid de-escalation, observers told CNN.
Iran’s economy is nevertheless under heavy strain. The IMF expects a contraction of more than 5% this year, inflation is near 80%, and the rial has plunged to record lows versus the dollar. Kpler also reports that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports has sharply curtailed tanker loadings, even as Tehran looks for ways to sustain exports.
The economic measures also carry costs for the United States. Average U.S. gasoline prices have climbed above $4 per gallon, and crude benchmarks have risen: Reuters reported Brent near $93.44 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate around $86.76, with both up several percentage points over the prior five days. Those price moves complicate political calculations in Washington, coming ahead of key elections.
A central plank of U.S. strategy is to persuade China to join the campaign to choke off Iran’s revenues. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has urged Beijing to participate in what he described as an unprecedented coordinated isolation, noting China’s heavy energy reliance on the Gulf. Chinese customs data show Gulf suppliers accounted for about 27.6% of China’s crude imports in July, and Kpler estimates China purchased more than 80% of Iran’s oil exports in 2025 — making Beijing pivotal to any effort to cut Tehran off.
President Trump has warned that countries, firms, and financial institutions that provide a “lifeline” to Iran could face “tremendous economic consequences,” singling out activities like oil smuggling, cash transfers, ship registrations, and the use of front companies.
So far, however, China has resisted joining Washington’s push. The Chinese embassy in Washington told the South China Morning Post and other outlets that sanctions and pressure do not resolve the underlying dispute and urged diplomatic and political solutions. Beijing’s continued purchases would preserve a vital revenue stream for Iran and complicate U.S. efforts to squeeze Tehran without causing wider oil-price pain.
The balance remains fragile: Washington wants to squeeze Iran’s finances without tipping global oil markets further into volatility, while Iran exploits loopholes and buyers to keep revenues flowing. China’s stance could determine how effectively the United States can tighten the economic screws without pushing energy prices higher worldwide.