Bloomberg — July 9, 2026
China’s consumer inflation slowed in June while producer inflation signaled it may have peaked, according to National Bureau of Statistics data. The consumer price index rose 1.0% year‑on‑year, down from 1.2% in May and slightly below the Bloomberg median forecast of 1.1%.
Producer prices rose 4.1% year‑on‑year, in line with expectations, but on a monthly basis factory prices fell 0.3% from May — the first month‑on‑month decline since July 2025. The NBS attributed some of the relief to lower global crude oil prices, which reduced costs in related sectors, according to statistician Dong Lijuan.
Markets reacted mildly: the yield on China’s 10‑year government bond held at about 1.73% after the release, and the onshore yuan gained roughly 0.1% against the dollar, making it one of Asia’s top performers that day. Chinese bonds and the currency have been relatively stable in recent weeks even as other markets faced pressure from a stronger dollar and greater expectations of U.S. rate hikes.
Officials and analysts say China likely exited economy‑wide deflation last quarter after three years, helped by strong investment in artificial intelligence and an oil price shock tied to the Middle East conflict. Still, a broader and sustained reflation is uncertain: weak consumer demand is limiting firms’ ability to pass higher input costs onto buyers, pressuring profit margins.
Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy, slowed to 1.0% in June — the weakest pace since January. At the same time, export prices are rising at their fastest rate since early 2023, a development that could carry inflationary effects beyond China if it persists.