By Reuters — May 12, 2026
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday it is modeling a scenario in which the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed through late May, with marine traffic beginning to resume gradually next month. The assumption prompted the agency to raise its outlook for U.S. motor fuel prices.
The EIA said Iran’s disruption of traffic through the strait amid its conflict with the United States and Israel has displaced millions of barrels per day of Middle Eastern exports, rattling global energy markets and contributing to multi-year highs for gasoline, diesel and other fuels in the United States. Those price gains present a political challenge for President Donald Trump ahead of November’s midterm elections.
In its monthly short-term energy outlook, the EIA raised its forecast for average U.S. retail gasoline to $3.88 per gallon for the year — about $0.18 higher than the agency’s April projection. The report bases that revision on the assumed closure through late May and a gradual reopening thereafter.
Before the disruption, the Strait of Hormuz accounted for roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. The EIA said traffic is unlikely to return to pre-conflict volumes until later in the year.
The agency estimated that some 10.5 million barrels per day of crude production was shut in during April across Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain. Those lost barrels, together with ongoing flows, are expected to tighten global inventories further.
The EIA projects global oil stocks will fall by an average of about 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, a decline that should keep Brent crude near $106 a barrel in May and June, the report said.