When India rolled out the red carpet for Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, it signalled to the West that New Delhi did not intend to abandon its long-standing partner. But several analysts say the visit ultimately favoured India, which “cunningly used Vladimir Putin to achieve its objective,” according to Ukrainian political scientist Taras Zagorodni.
Zagorodni argues Russia is in a precarious position because of falling oil prices and has introduced tax breaks for Rosneft and Gazprom. He suggests the visit aimed to coax India into continuing purchases of Russian oil after New Delhi had scaled back imports under US sanctions. Zagorodni told Channel 24 that, sensing Russia’s desperation, India can press for deeper discounts and concessions, potentially including access to military technology.
He noted current discounted Russian oil prices run about $40–$45 per barrel, with instances of sales at $36.60, and analysts expect further declines next year. “Russia will try to negotiate with India in a ‘brotherly’ manner, expecting loyalty. It will have to offer additional concessions, including risk discounts, due to pressure from Trump and other factors. At the same time, the question remains: in what volumes and at what price will Moscow be able to sell oil? And logistics are important here,” Zagorodni observed. He predicted India would likely impose tough conditions, leaving little profit for Russia.
Zagorodni also said Russian propaganda tries to portray Putin as important, but internationally — especially in India and China — he can be seen as subordinate or “ridiculous.” He added, “Russia has found itself in the humiliating position of trying to trade access to strategic military technologies, particularly nuclear submarines, which were previously its trump card.”
By contrast, analyst Mark Galeotti argued the optics favoured Russia. Writing in The Times, he quoted a US diplomat confident that India and Russia “were pretty savvy when it comes to finding workarounds. ‘Soon enough, we’ll see imports ostensibly from third parties that are really from Russia,’” the diplomat said. Galeotti noted that the warm reception undercut attempts to cast Russia as a pariah and helped counter the idea that Moscow is becoming a vassal of China.
Galeotti also pointed out that efforts by Western leaders to enlist greater pressure on Putin have had limited visible effect. He referenced French President Emmanuel Macron’s outreach to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, intended to persuade Beijing to press Moscow, and suggested those hopes had produced little. “The higher Putin assesses Russia’s position both on the battlefield and in the world, the less pressure he feels to reach a deal,” Galeotti concluded.
