Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have estimated how long it might take Russia to capture the Donbas region amid renewed offensive activity. Since the August 15 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, Russia has reportedly seized roughly 908 square kilometers of additional Ukrainian territory — an area about the size of Berlin, ISW says.
Some recent Russian gains were aided by seasonal weather—fog and rain that limited Ukrainian drone operations—so the pace of advance may slow as conditions improve. Despite local successes, ISW predicts it would take Russia years to take all of Donbas. The report also suggests the Kremlin is intensifying nonkinetic and kinetic pressure to force Ukraine to cede key areas, arguing Moscow sees Ukrainian capitulation as the most certain path to control.
US President Trump has publicly said Ukraine will likely lose territory soon, including areas it had not yet surrendered. At the same time, ISW notes continued Western military aid and European financing of US arms sales could enable Ukrainian forces to hold the Donetsk “Fortress Belt” for several years and potentially retake some Russian gains.
Separately, reports describe a Russian strategic offensive around Pokrovsk aimed at breaching Ukrainian defenses and occupying more of Donetsk region. Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky told The New York Post that Russia has massed large forces near Pokrovsk: of an estimated 700,000 Russian personnel in Ukraine, about 150,000 were engaged near that area, including large mechanized formations and four marine brigades.
Syrsky said Russian forces aim to seize Pokrovsk and nearby towns from the north, south and east to cut supply lines. Once civilians evacuate, he warned, Moscow could attempt a “final maneuver” to consolidate control in the Donetsk region.
